'Tale of Chinese aggression plausible'

NEW DELHI, AUG. 29. The fictional scenario of Chinese nuclear strikes on New Delhi and Mumbai in 2007 drawn in a book written by a BBC journalist was today termed ``plausible'' by leading defence experts, lending support to the controversial views of the Defence Minister, Mr. George Fernandes.

Commending Dragon Fire by Mr. Humphrey Hawksley, Mr. Fernandes expressed the hope that nobody would dismiss it as ``one more work of fiction''. The political and historical backdrop against which the book was written ``is real'', he said.

The defence analysts said the import of the remarks by Mr. Fernandes was not out of place. A ``strategic collusion'' between China and Pakistan could be a ``real threat'' to India particularly with Beijing being a ``more potent factor''.

The former Home and Defence Secretary, Mr. N. N. Vohra, said the tale of Sino-Pakistani aggression against a restrained India portrayed in the book could be ``consequently credible'' while the former Foreign Secretary, Mr. Mani Dixit, maintained that the author's conclusion was ``somewhat oversimplified'' but could be ``logical''.

Mr. Vohra, Mr. Dixit, the IDSA Director, Mr. Jasjit Singh, the former Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, and Rear Admiral (retd.) Raja Menon, among others, were participating in separate discussions for Doordarshan and SAB TV anchored by Mr. Karan Thapar.

However, the former Prime Minister, Mr. I. K. Gujral, who was part of a discussion, dismissed the portrayal in the book as ``fiction'' asserting, ``I do not think anybody in this world is so mad as to resort to the use of nuclear weapons''.

Mr. Jasjit Singh said Tibet, centre of the upheaval portrayed in the book, was a problem and ``must be solved''.

But Rear Admiral Raja Menon contended that a renegade battalion of Tibetan refugees raised by the Indian Army carrying out a ``rogue operation'' was stretching the scenario beyond a point. However, the tactical narrative ``cannot be faulted''.

To a question, Mr. Vohra said the tactical details given in the book would not be easily available even if they were not classified, while Mr. Dixit felt that the author, who was posted in Sri Lanka during the IPKF (Indian Peacekeeping Forces) operations, could have spoken to sources in the Army.

Agreeing with Mr. Gujral's views, Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, however, said lessons needed to be drawn from the catastrophic portrayal and India should be prepared for the worst case.

He said India and China would in the next 15 to 20 years compete not only economically but also in the military field. But he was not too sure whether the national security planners were taking that ``rivalry'' into account ``seriously''.

- PTI

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