The road to peace is long and winding

There is a realisation that a `solution' to the Kashmir issue cannot be found or imposed in a hurry. The peace process, writes HARISH KHARE, will be a protracted affair and will test the political skills in New Delhi, Islamabad and Srinagar.

PERHAPS THE most revealing development in the troubled State of Jammu and Kashmir is that the Chief Minister, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, has taken off for a three-week holiday abroad. The good doctor was never known to be terribly concerned with the problems of governance, but his decision to leave the State at a time when attempts are on to revive the ``peace process'' is not without implications. It is easy to infer that either the Chief Minister knows for sure that no substantial breakthrough is around the corner, or that he feels so sidelined that he does not care to stick around when serious players are talking serious business. What is mystifying is that just before he left, the Chief Minister felt it necessary to make a statement that secret talks were on with various militant groups. A clear case of mischievous aforethought.

The other equally revealing development was the nearly week-long sojourn in New Delhi of two senior Hurriyat Conference leaders - the former chairman, Syed Geelani, and the current chairman, Prof. Abdul Ghani Bhatt. The two leaders spent long hours, spread over three days, at the Pakistani High Commission, presumably exchanging ideas, getting new advice and instructions on ``secure lines''. Though there were unconfirmed reports about the APHC chairman meeting some ``Indian officials'', neither of the leaders felt the need to interact with their many friends and well-wishers. For now, it seems, they are happy to be seen as being at the beck and call of the Pakistani military establishment.

Despite Dr. Abdullah's not-so-subtle attempts to pooh-pooh the peace process, and despite the APHC leadership's all-too-blatant attempt to sabotage the Hizb-Centre dialogue, the hard reality is that every `player' feels constrained to assess the depth and the durability of the popular urge for peace in the troubled State. This urge was well articulated the other day by the Hizbul Mujahideen commander-in-chief, Mr. Abdul Majid Dar: ``Hizbul Mujahideen is fully aware of the wishes of the people (for peace) and that is why it wants a dialogue.'' He said neither India nor Pakistan or the militants could ignore this desire. On the non- violent side, the popular sentiment is being forcefully spelt out by Ms. Mehbooba Mufti, a leader of the People's Democratic Party. At very well attended public meetings, she has been arguing that the people should unite to force India, Pakistan and the militant groups to engage in unconditional talks

Yet there is a certain ``once bitten, twice shy'' wariness, at least at the very top of the Vajpayee establishment. There is a realisation that during the last round - or rather the aborted round - of negotiation, both sides rushed to occupy the chairs at the conference table without bothering to tie up the loose ends. The process got derailed and provoked so much violence that the very idea of peace got a bad name. The Vajpayee Government cannot be expected to allow the Hizb or any other group or Pakistan to get away with the notion that violence will produce tactical advantages in negotiations.

Also, there is a realisation that a `solution' cannot be found or imposed in a hurry. The peace process will be protracted affair and will test the political skills in New Delhi, Islamabad and Srinagar. In such a protracted affair, there is a time to be active, and there is time to sit back and let things cool a bit; for now, the inclination in New Delhi is to allow various groups to assess their own commitment to changing the paradigm in Kashmir. Nonetheless, the Vajpayee Government's best laid plans can add up to nothing if its various functionaries cannot curb their desire to hog the headlines. For example, the officials are quite dismayed that the Defence Minister, Mr. George Fernandes, has recklessly pronounced himself on various tactical and strategic matters about Kashmir, when the requirement of the moment is clearly to observe rules of reticence. Mr. Fernandes speaks for the military establishment, which is uncomfortable at the thought of concessions and negotiations.

To the extent the Vajpayee establishment's energies, for now, are directed at the Prime Minister's upcoming visit to the United States, it is unlikely that the Centre will be taking any major initiative. By the same reckoning, both the militants and the Pakistani brass will want to raise the visibility of the ``Kashmir issue'' on the international radar; the Americans have been helpful in this regard. An alarming report - purported to be a CIA study - of a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is being bandied about; the idea is to stampede New Delhi into agreeing to a dialogue with Islamabad without insisting on an end to the cross-border terrorism. And, of course, the Jaswant Singh formulations proceed on the assumption that the U.S. will cheerfully tighten the screws on Pakistan; ironically, the APHC and other groups in Kashmir believe that the U.S. is honour-bound not to abandon their ``struggle'' for human rights, dignity, honour, etc. All these pressures and counter-pressures will be in play right till the end of the Prime Minister's American visit.

Substantive movement ``on the ground'' will have to await the outcome of the Vajpayee sojourn in the U.S. But, meanwhile, the onus will be on the Hizb leadership. It will have to demonstrate its capacity to keep its cadres intact under one banner; the Hizb leadership can add to its bargaining power if it can persuade the other militant groups to join hands with it in restarting the peace process.

Above all, the Hizb leadership will have to find ways and means to deprive the warring APHC groups of the veto over peace. After all, it is the Hizb cadres who have paid with their blood, while the Hurriyat Conference crowd has been quite content to call hartals. If the Hizb remains steadfast in its search for a peaceful way out of the decade of bloodshed, it will force the Hurriyat Conference's highly compromised leaders to fall in line with the popular mood.

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