Bihar on the boil

The post-election scenario and the move to create a Jharkhand State have triggered tensions in Bihar, compounding the developments in the fodder case, which threatens to push the State towards political instability. A report by K. BALCHAND.

BIHAR IS passing through a crucial phase, caught in the throes of yet another spell of political turmoil. The situation is made graver by caste tensions coupled with gang wars which are testing not only the political parties and alliances but also the social fabric.

Several problems are confronting the State at the same time, each somehow related to another and together these have rendered the situation complex.

The post-election scenario and the move to create a separate Jharkhand State have trigerred tensions among caste and gangs. These have resulted in several killings compounding the developments in the fodder scam case, centring round the Chief Minister, Mrs. Rabri Devi, and the former Chief Minister and Rashtriya Janata Dal president, Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, which threatens to push the State towards political instability. And, making the problem knottier is the Government-Raj Bhavan confrontation.

The real dilemma for the ruling RJD arises from the Opposition demand for the resignation of the Chief Minister in the wake of the designated CBI court framing charges against her and the RJD supremo in a disproportionate assets case and deciding to commence trial on July 4.

The decibels rise with the growing number of massacres, though those killed are supporters of the RJD and its allies, including the MCC MLA, Gurdas Chatterjee, in Nirsa, south Bihar, save some incidents in which NDA supporters were done to death. A BJP MP and an MLA are already behind bars.

Much of Mr. Yadav's predicament is his own making, arising from legal battles. On the face of it, he has little to worry politically as of now, what with the National Democratic Alliance a battered lot. Nor do the RJD's allies appear in a mood to concede the advantage to the BJP-led combine, particularly after the RJD managed to save its vote-bank.

The NDA, having blackened its face every so often and with quite a few skeletons in its cupboard, is not in a position to even cry wolf, let alone initiate steps to call the shots any longer.

The NDA leaders are a woebegone and divided lot. The Telecommunications Minister, Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan, seems to have become indifferent after he was brushed off in the selection of Chief Minister nominee. The Union Agriculture Minister, Mr. Nitish Kumar, is no more in a position to take a third whipping, he having bitten the dust twice in his bid to get the coveted post.

As for the Congress(I), it has little options. It does not want to dash its fond hope of projecting itself as an alternative to the BJP-led NDA and to give scope for cobbling up a third front.

No less important is the fact that it owes its existence in Bihar to Mr. Yadav. It is the only party, besides the CPI(M), which has been spared the wiles of Mr. Yadav over the past decade.

As a matter of fact, both the Congress(I) and the BSP have taken enough measures to ensure the political rehabilitation of Mr. Yadav at the national level by constituting a coordination committee under his leadership. More importantly, they have sought to vest decision-making power in him.

Yet, Mr. Yadav has to contend with the Congress(I), whose support is crucial for the existence of the Rabri Devi Government, besides the Governor and, in turn, the Centre. These are his main headaches at the moment.

Mr. Yadav's stepped-up campaign for the recall of the Governor could well be to preempt his taking action against the State Government following the demand for the dismissal of the Chief Minister. The outcome of this confrontation will have a crucial bearing on the political scenario.

The Congress(I) has been maintaining that it is studying the court order in the disproportionate assets case and putting pressure on the Government to improve the law and order situation. In the eventuality of the Congress(I) withdrawing its support, the RJD may take advantage of dissensions plaguing the JD(U) and the Samata Party to save its government.

The JD(U) is most vulnerable to split with Mr. Paswan, who cut a sorry figure during the biennial elections to the council as he failed to divide the party, deciding to convert his Dalit Sena into a political outfit. It is feared that the JD(U) might suffer a three-way split with one section joining the RJD and the third one staying with its president and Civil Aviation Minister, Mr. Sharad Yadav.

The RJD leaders are confident that Mr. Yadav would save his party's government in both the eventualities. After all, he must have chalked out a contingency strategy when the Chief Minister surrendered before the designated court after non-bailable arrest warrants had been issued against the couple.

Mr. Yadav's supporters do not think that their leader would find it difficult to impose his decision once again, that too when he had established his hold over the masses.

The immediate concern stems from the gang wars and caste tensions prevailing in the State. Much like caste groups, criminal gangs too have taken sides in politics, specially because the NDA sought to rely on them in their failed bid to unseat the RJD.

It is not just a battle for survival as some of these nurture political ambitions and the easiest way to achieve the goal is to gain the support of their caste by avenging a crime committed against it.

While the anti-Laloo forces have broken the unity among the backward castes, the gang war in Nawada district has taken a curious turn as the one having the support of Bhumihars is up against gangs enjoying the backing of Yadavs and Kurmis, two intermediary backward castes which parted ways with the formation of the Samata Party.

The massacre of 12 Bhumihars was carried out allegedly by a criminal belonging to the Kurmi caste. Interestingly, Mr. Kumar did not visit Nawada district.

While this might affect equations within the NDA, the imminent split in the JD(U) will also pave the way for a fresh alignment of forces in the days to come.

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