Testing time ahead

The major problem for Tamil Nadu, apart from the possible infiltration by some militants, will be the resumption of large- scale smuggling, says V. JAYANTH.

THE SRI LANKAN Tamil issue has a deep impact on Tamil Nadu, because of historical, cultural, linguistic, trade and geographic ties. From the days of the original `Boat Mail', which connected the ferry service from Jaffna to Madras, the umbilical chord has never been severed. About 70,000 refugees, who came away in the post-1983 phase, continue to live in Tamil Nadu. Apart from those staying in the camps, many of the Jaffna as well as Colombo Tamils live on their own, some of them well-entrenched in business.

So, when the war erupted in the Jaffna peninsula and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) over-ran the Elephant Pass camp of the Sri Lankan Army, people in Tamil Nadu began to sit up and carefully monitor the situation. Government officials, police and analysts explain that the on-going offensive and the unresolved ethnic issue in Sri Lanka will continue to influence the course of events and politics in this southern State. But the involvement of the 1980s seems to be conspicuously missing.

Two developments, if they take place, will determine the future impact of the crisis on Tamil Nadu - the fall of Jaffna to the LTTE; and how India responds to the crisis. The developments on the Jaffna front will determine if there will be a fresh exodus of refugees to Tamil Nadu. Police sources say ``There is no cause for alarm, but we are monitoring the situation. The Indian Navy and the Coast Guard have enhanced their presence in the seas. Our information is that about 3,000 refugees are waiting for boats in Thalaimannar and another 5,000 on the islands off Jaffna. Because of the intensity of the battle, there are no boats to ferry them now. If Jaffna falls or the battle fades out, they will start coming in.''

What the authorities in the coastal districts and the police expect is that the problems of the Jaffna people may be compounded if the LTTE takes control. The Jaffna hospital will be crippled and supply of food and other essential commodities disrupted if the Sri Lankan Army is forced to leave. That is when the people will move out.

The major task will be to separate the militants (of any group) from the genuine refugees. Which is why all refugees are screened and put through a tough interrogation. Given its experience, the State administration wants to ensure that militants do not return to Tamil Nadu, or try to store their weapons along the coast. Accommodating or looking after the refugees will not be a problem as there are over 125 camps across the State. But if they stay for an indefinite period, it becomes an agony for both the authorities and the refugees.

But the officials here are more worried about how the Centre handles this sensitive issue. Is India going to intervene? Will it really play the mediator or facilitator between Colombo and the LTTE? If so, what will be the repercussions on the domestic scene, especially in Tamil Nadu?

Already, there is muted criticism of the Naval exercise on the southern/eastern coast. This has sent a strong signal to Sri Lanka and may effectively prevent Tamil Nadu fishermen from venturing into Sri Lankan waters in search of a good catch. Similarly, it can also contain smuggling activities along the Tamil Nadu coast, besides discouraging the clandestine ferrying of refugees who are jettisoned on islands in the sea.

The nature and extent of Indian involvement in Sri Lanka's ethnic crisis will influence political and consequently public opinion in the State. Except in some of the southern districts there is not much support for the LTTE and even the Chief Minister, Mr. M. Karunanidhi, has taken a very cautious and defensive stand on the LTTE. It is only a handful of politicians and their parties who are defending the Tamil Tigers and speaking up for them. No more bandhs on the Sri Lankan Tamils issue.

It is perhaps because of this sensitivity that the Centre categorically ruled out any military intervention in Sri Lanka - no supply of arms to Colombo and no backing for Eelam. If both sides to the conflict ask it, New Delhi is prepared to mediate and facilitate a dialogue that can possibly lead to a solution. Nothing more is on the cards.

The major problem for Tamil Nadu, apart from the possible infiltration of some militants, will be the resumption of large- scale smuggling if Jaffna falls to the LTTE.

The region will depend on supplies from southern India to meet its requirements and agents will fall for the high margins that this risky business can fetch. That is when all the trouble will begin as the Navy, the Customs and the police will intensify their operations along the coast.

Experience has shown that many fishermen became regular agents smuggling diesel and kerosene to Jaffna, at a huge premium, risking their lives in the bargain. That is the danger, apart from leading to a rise in prices here.

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