Saffron losing its flavour

For the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, it appears to be a case of out of the frying pan into the fire... That Mr. Ram Prakash Gupta will not be able to lead the State Government till the Assembly elections has become an accepted fact in party circles, says J. P. SHUKLA.

FOR THE Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh it appears a case of out of frying pan into the fire. The process that had started with the formation of the Kalyan Singh Ministry, comprising 100- odd Ministers including all the defectors from the Congress(I), the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal, never allowed the saffron forces to regroup. The BJP's desire to cling to power caused an irreversible decay in its ranks. When the pampered allies were never satisfied and continued to demand a greater share of the spoils of office, the BJP MLAs were no longer prepared to observe austerity in the name of ideology.

During Mr. Kalyan Singh's tenure, an impression had been created that his style of functioning alone was the cause of the BJP woes. Party dissidents would rush to New Delhi every other day to complain against Mr. Kalyan Singh and demand his removal. Nearly six months have elapsed since he was replaced and it is the same old story all over again. Dissidents in the BJP have launched a campaign for the removal of Mr. Singh's successor as Chief Minister, Mr. Ram Prakash Gupta.

In a sense, the situation now is more serious. Mr. Singh was a natural leader who had come up from the grassroots. He knew the State's political pulse and the BJP workers personally. Mr. Gupta, in contrast, is a ``stranger''. Before his appointment as Chief Minister, he had little interaction with workers at any level. His old age and manners have left him isolated even after six months in office.

Another major difference between the BJP's present problems and those six months earlier is that the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee's prestige is at stake. Mr. Kalyan Singh felt that Mr. Vajpayee himself was behind the dissident activity against him. After his expulsion from the party, he squarely blamed Mr. Vajpayee for working to oust him. Mr. Gupta is stated to be Mr. Vajpayee's choice. The dissidence against Mr. Gupta is, hence, being interpreted as a campaign against the Prime Minister himself.

Mr. Kalyan Singh used to boast of his power to make or break anyone. Mr. Gupta takes pride in his weakness. ``My weakness itself is my strength,'' he had declared while claiming that he was the party high command's choice as Chief Minister precisely because of his low profile. As a Chief Minister imposed from above he may not have any supporters among the BJP MLAs, but as a nominee of the Prime Minister, the MLAs have no role in his continuance as Chief Minister - this is the impression he has sought to spread.

With the general deterioration in party affairs, MLAs now have scant respect for discipline. The failure of the BJP leadership to take action against erring members has only aggravated the situation. In the Rajya Sabha biennial elections, over 20 MLAs cross-voted in favour of non-BJP candidates. A wary leadership decided to ignore the issue in view of the biennial elections to the Legislative Council. This only led to the defeat of the official BJP nominee, Mr. Sunil Shastri, in the Council elections. Even now the leadership is not sure of the steps to take to restore order.

The just-concluded Budget session of the Uttar Pradesh Legislature witnessed some of the most insulting moments for the Chief Minister - party MLAs openly harangued him for his failure to concede their demands, whether transfer of officials or some other thing. All this took place in the lobby of the Assembly in full view of the press. The Chief Minister found it shocking that no one came forward to persuade the MLAs to seek the privacy of his chambers to air their grievances.

A dispute between the BJP and its allies over inclusion of Hardwar and Udhamsingh Nagar districts in the proposed State of Uttarakhand has come as a fresh irritant in the ruling alliance. The Loktantrik Congress Party headed by Mr. Naresh Agarwal has demanded a referendum on the decision to include Hardwar in Uttarkhand. The decision to separate Hardwar from Uttar Pradesh would be against the wishes of the people of the district, Mr. Agarwal said. The LCP has hinted at ``severe steps'' if its demands are ignored.

Party insiders feel that the popularity graph of the BJP has been falling by the day. The MLAs fear that if the present situation continues, the Assembly elections due in September next year could prove a debacle. That Mr. Gupta will not be able to lead the State Government till the Assembly elections has become an accepted fact in party circles.

The question being debated is: what is the opportune time to replace him? This, despite the pronouncements from New Delhi that there is no question of removing Mr. Gupta.

There is talk of making a change in the leadership just before the elections. Mr. Gupta may, according to this view, be allowed to continue at least till the end of the current year. It, however, looks doubtful whether the BJP will be able to regain its popularity by making such clever moves.

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Section  : Opinion
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