Jaffna precariously poised

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, MAY 18. The Sri Lankan forces may soon find the pressure on Jaffna town unbearable, highly-placed sources in the Government said today. According to these sources, some LTTE cadres have already entered Jaffna in the last few days and a major assault on the town may not be far away. In fact, defending Jaffna may become untenable beyond ``a couple of days'', according to a source.

Analysts point out that the Sri Lankan forces are theoretically capable of holding the LTTE surge in Jaffna but are unlikely to do so due to an acute fall in morale. The forces, after offering good initial resistance, have been retreating in an unplanned manner in some of the recent battles. In fact, the retreating Sri Lankan Army had left behind some valuable equipment which has fallen into the LTTE's hands. Not surprisingly, the Tigers on Wednesday shelled the Palaly airbase with captured 122-mm field guns.

According to analysts, the LTTE is sharpening its attack on Jaffna and the firing of some shells near the Palaly airfield was indicative of this. By attacking Palaly - the lifeline of the Government forces in the Jaffna peninsula - the LTTE is creating conditions for further isolating the Jaffna town.

The LTTE is ensuring that the troops are prevented from being switched to Jaffna town by keeping alive the threat on the strategically vital Palaly. Without reinforcements, the defence of a beleaguered Jaffna would be further weakened. Already, the LTTE has cut off the crucial A-9 Highway at several points, making it difficult for supplies to reach the forces inside.

The assessment here is that the LTTE is making a calibrated thrust which may ultimately lead to negotiations. The Tigers are expected to establish de facto control over Jaffna by taking over some key establishments such as the strategically located Jaffna University, using which as base, the Tigers could establish control over the town by combining popular support with terror. They may, however, not like to make a formal declaration of takeover since that would mean an unacceptable loss of face for the Sri Lankans. In such an eventuality, the Sri Lankans are likely to be driven away from the negotiating table.

Indian contingency plans

India, on its part, is ready with contingency plans. Indian ships are set to evacuate trapped Sri Lankan soldiers or Tamil refugees in case of an LTTE thrust into Jaffna. Meanwhile, the combined Navy and Coast Guard surveillance exercise, code- named `Tasha', gathered further momentum with another Coast Guard ship joining the vigil around Tuticorin.

The Sri Lankan Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Rohan De'Silva Daluvatte, visited Bangalore today and was briefed by high- ranking Army officers. The Sri Lankans, sources say, are showing an interest in non-lethal equipment from India, but New Delhi was yet to offer any response.

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