Jaffna may not fall easily

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, MAY 13. The situation in Jaffna peninsula, despite the recent successes of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, is in a state of flux. Sources in the Government here said the capacity of the Sri Lankan forces in thwarting the rebels' advance could not be underestimated.

Besides, the fall of Jaffna town, which appears to be the focus of LTTE's thrust, may not necessarily mean the end of the conflict, the sources said. In fact, the takeover of the Palaly air-base and the Kankesanturai naval base in the northeast by the LTTE, could prove costlier to Colombo.

Palaly, hub of the Sri Lankan supply line in the area, if made impregnable, could become the springboard of a rearguard action by the Army. Consolidation in the area may also be relatively easy; for, unlike Jaffna, Palaly and its surroundings are lightly wooded and developed, discouraging full-fledged guerrilla warfare by the Tigers. There are two other factors which could slow down the LTTE, analysts say. First, the Sri Lankan soldiers are aware that they are fighting for survival and this can stiffen their resolve. The LTTE, according to sources, is not well known for taking prisoners, though it has in the past left ``safe passages'' for its adversaries. Besides, there are some major changes in the command structure of the Sri Lankan Army which may have a bearing on the conflict.

Maj. Gen. Janaka Perera, one of the most decorated soldiers in the Army, has been appointed overall commander for the Jaffna peninsula as well as Joint Chief of (Army) operations. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether his presence will lift the morale of the junior leadership to the required level. Inputs received here indicate the General, after initially surveying the battle-zone, was not particularly optimistic about defending the area against a determined LTTE onslaught.

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