Iranians back reformists again

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), MAY. 6. Iranian reformers have crossed yet another hurdle by winning 46 of the 66 parliamentary seats involved in the second round of polling held yesterday. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), identifiable conservatives had won 15 seats with the remainder going to independents. The result has clearly proved that the pro-reform momentum has not been dispersed with the closure of liberal papers and the arrest of liberal ideologues but the conservatives have other measures at their disposal and the strong pro-reform mood among the public is not likely to deter them.

Voters yesterday cast their ballots for 66 seats spread over 52 territorial constituencies (the number of seats each constituency has in Parliament depends on its share of the total Iranian population). Earlier reports suggested that the turnout was considerably lower than it was for the first round held on February 18. But according to later reports, polling had picked up to the extant that the time allotted for casting ballots was extended by an hour in some cases and by two hours in other constituencies. The results are, however, unofficial till they have been certified by the Council of Guardians, a conservative- dominated body which supervises elections.

If the Guardians do not overturn the returns from the counting centres, the reformers are already assured of a simple majority in the 290-member House. Reform candidates have been certified as winners in 120 of the 185 seats in respect of which the results were final after the first round itself. With the 46 seats they are said to have won in the second round, they are comfortably over the halfway margin. That is even without counting the 30 seats in the Teheran constituency. Initial results from Teheran confirmed the assessment of all observers that the reformers had handily won these seats. After two separate counts, pro-reform candidates were seen to have won 29 of these seats with the last going to Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani, leader of the conservative election campaign. However, the Guardians declared they found some discrepancies in the Teheran count and ordered a third count.

If the Guardians do relent and validate the first two rounds of counting in Teheran, the reformers will have a two- thirds majority. Their margin will increase when elections are held for nine seats in which the results had been annulled by the Guardians. The Guardians had overturned 12 of the first round results by handing over three seats, originally said to have been won by reformers, to conservative candidates and by annulling another nine. Now the fate of the 30 Teheran constituencies hangs in the balance.

Ayatollah Ahmed Janati, the head of the Guardians Council, has declared that the Teheran results will be out on May 9. If he sticks to his word one fear will be removed from the reform groups' mind. They had feared that the Guardians would hold back the Teheran result till after Parliament convenes for the first time on May 28.

If the reform candidates from Teheran had not been certified to sit in Parliament they would not have been able to participate in the initial crucial procedures wherein a presiding council is elected. The Teheran candidate make up the most crucial and vibrant elements of the pro-reform leadership and without their presence, the reform parliamentarians would not be able to bring their weight to bear in the new House.

The fear that the declaration of the Teheran result would be postponed till after the convening of Parliament is relatively minor compared to the greater fear that the Guardians might change the pattern of the Teheran result or cancel it altogether.

With the prospect that the reform groups could control a two- thirds majority staring them in the face, the conservatives might be sorely tempted. On the other hand, they have to face the reality that Iranian voters have, for the fourth time in three years, voted overwhelmingly against them and in favour of the reform camp.

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Section  : International
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