The race is still on in New York

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

NEW YORK, MAY 1. If opinion polls here are anything to go by at this point of time, the uncertainty surrounding the candidacy of Mr. Rudy Giuliani for the Senate race against the First Lady, Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton, is something only figuring in the media. In spite of the Mayor's announcement last week that he is getting treated for the beginnings of prostrate cancer, an overwhelming percentage of the electorate believe that this race figuring two intense candidates is still on.

According to one poll, more than 80 per cent of New York voters believe that Mr. Giuliani is still a ``strong candidate''; and 70 per cent have taken the view that Mr. Giuliani will be in the race despite his saying that he will be scaling down the Senate campaign to keep up with his treatment schedule. The strong perceptions on this is passed off, at least in some way, on the kind of knowledge people have these days about illnesses and in the fact that prostrate cancer, if detected early, could be cured.

What the first polls in the aftermath of Mr. Giuliani's announcement last Thursday are also showing is that the Senate race is now down to a dead heat as it once was. On the one hand an argument can be made that the New York Mayor has improved his standing in the aftermath of some highly negative publicity on the manner in which the city's police officers go about their job. Yet, on the other hand, analysts are making the point that the ``bounce'' from sympathy for the Mayor's illness has not been reflected in the polls.

The next three or four weeks will be crucial for the Grand Old Party in this state. For, within this time the final decision would have to be made on whether or not Mr. Giuliani will indeed be facing off against Mrs. Clinton. Time is a critical factor in the sense that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have the luxury of ``taking it easy'' for a few weeks in this campaign. From the beginning it was amply clear that the campaign would be tough, high profile and down to the stretch.

Publicly not much is being said within the GOP leadership as to what would or should happen in the event Mr. Giuliani decides not to contest the Senate seat. But at least in an informal sense the impression is that the Republicans have started ``looking around'' for alternatives - someone with not just conservative credentials but one who has state-wide appeal, especially in upstate New York.

Again, polls are also showing that if Mr. Giuliani pulled out of the race, the New York Governor, Mr. George Pataki, has the best chance of defeating the First Lady. The Governor had the backing of 47 per cent in a recent survey as opposed to 43 per cent for Mrs. Clinton. But if the error factor in the poll is factored, this would also seem to be a dead-heat. For his part, Mr. Pataki - a supporter of Mr. Giuliani - has not said whether he would be interested in the Senate race.

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