U.S.-Russia talks on ABM fail

By Vladimir Radyuhin

MOSCOW, APRIL 28. Russia is reviewing its options in case the United States deploys a national anti-missile defence, the Foreign Minister, Mr. Igor Ivanov, said upon completing his talks in Washington.

``Russia cannot but get ready for this worst scenario in order to guarantee its national security,'' the RIA Novosti news agency quoted Mr. Ivanov as saying after his talks with the U.S. Secretary of State, Ms. Madeleine Albright, failed to bridge the sides' differences on the 1972 ABM Treaty.

If the U.S. decides to deploy a national missile defence system, Moscow ``will not consider itself bound by the START-I, START-II and all other disarmament pacts,'' Mr. Ivanov told RIA Novosti in Washington. ``This will trigger uncontrollable processes and spur on an arms race.''

The U.S. would like to modify the ABM Treaty to be able to deploy what it calls a limited anti-ballistic missile defence consisting of at least 100 interceptors in Alaska and a chain of early warning radars to protect itself from nuclear missile attacks by what it calls ``rogue'' states such as North Korea.

Russia's leaders, however, say deployment of such a defence system would undermine the principle of mutually assured destruction which has always been a cornerstone of deterrence between the two nuclear superpowers.

Russian analysts say Moscow could agree to Washington's proposal on two conditions. The U.S. Congress must ratify the 1977 protocol signed by the then Russian Foreign Minister, Mr. Yevgeny Primakov, and Ms. Albright, which would ban the U.S. from expanding a limited shield against ballistic missiles into a national one, and the two countries go ahead for deeper cuts in their nuclear arsenals to bring them down to 1,500 warheads, compared to 3,500 allowed under START-II.

Mr. Ivanov and Ms. Albright agreed to continue their consultations on ABM, but analysts are sceptical the U.S. would accept Russian conditions.

``The U.S. will walk out of the ABM treaty,'' said Mr. Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the Institute of U.S. and Canada Studies.

``Americans feel there is no point in making deals with Russia, which is worthless as an ally and not fearful as an enemy.''

If the Russia-U.S. arms control system collapses, Russia will be able to maintain an effective second-strike nuclear capability for another 10 years, analysts said.

``Abrogation of START-II would allow Russia to deploy multiple warheads on land-based missiles as well as stop scrapping railway-mounted Topol ballistic missiles that will be difficult for U.S. satellites to spot,'' said Mr. Ivan Safranchuk of the Centre for Policy Studies.

``All in all, Russia can afford to keep 3,000 warheads operative, which would be enough to overcome a U.S. national defence during the next 10 years.''

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Section  : International
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