A rising star fades

Three eruptions took place in Japan last week. The volcanic activity on Mt. Usu, the failed blackmail attempt by Mr. Keizo Obuchi's main political ally, Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, and ultimately, the sudden and debilitating illness of Mr. Obuchi himself. F. J. KHERGAMVALA reports.

LIKE MOST top Japanese politicians, Mr. Yoshiro Mori no longer rents his tailcoat or, as the Japanese call it, ``the penguin suit''. Required for all ceremonial occasions at the Imperial Palace, most politicians buy their own penguin suits once they know they have reached Cabinet status, roughly 20 years after being elected.

Mr. Mori, 62, who took over as Japan's Prime Minister on Wednesday, scarcely expected three days before that he would need to wear the tailcoat. But there he was, at a palace investiture, taking over a job from his friend and schoolmate Mr. Keizo Obuchi, whom fate so cruelly claimed at a time when most observers believe he was close to the zenith of his power.

Almost exactly a year ago, Mr. Obuchi said in a speech at a Tokyo hotel ``I was unpopular even before I became Prime Minister. People said I might last three days but seven months have already passed. I lasted three days, then three months, so maybe I can last three more years.''

Three eruptions took place in Japan last week. The volcanic activity on Mt. Usu, the failed blackmail attempt by Mr. Obuchi's main political ally, Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, and ultimately, the sudden and debilitating illness of Mr. Obuchi himself. Of the three, only the latter event was a complete surprise.

Mt. Usu was never a dormant volcano and has been erupting with a degree of predictability. Mr. Ozawa, likewise, has also been trying to ask too much from the ruling coalition and this time went too far in that for the second time in a year and a half he has split his party. But, one could have never expected that Mr. Obuchi would descend rapidly into the abyss.

Yet, in some ways the three events are related. The volcanic eruption brought out the finest in Mr. Obuchi. Unlike his predecessors, Mr. Obuchi was unwilling to leave things to chance, and subordinates. He personally saw to it that evacuation efforts were in place from three towns in the vicinity of Mt. Usu. He personally took charge of the control centre at the Prime Minister's official residence.

According to the former Prime Minister, Mr. Morihiro Hosokawa, it was perhaps one of Mr. Obuchi's failings, if one could describe it that way, that he wanted to see every matter of detail tied up. Micromanagement, some might call it, but given Japan's history of being unable to cope with unexpected events, Mr. Obuchi, just months away from a general election, could not take the chance of seeing a repetition of the handling of the Kobe earthquake or the Tokaimura nuclear incident last year.

When Mr. Obuchi took over as an unelected Prime Minister at the end of July 1998 in the wake of a humiliating debacle for the Ryutaro Hashimoto-led ruling Liberal Democratic Party in elections to a part of the Upper House, he barely expected to be there more than a few months. Quietly and shrewdly he set about consolidating, first his own position then his party's. He bought a deal with the conservative opposition Liberal Party of Mr. Ozawa. That bargain not only gave the LDP-led coalition control over the Upper House to adopt legislation, but also decimated the opposition.

Quite often Mr. Ozawa tried to test Mr. Obuchi but each time the latter came out the clever man. The final test for Mr. Ozawa's brinkmanship came last Saturday when Mr. Obuchi came before the cameras to tell the public in a disguised language that the Japanese understand that he had refused to succumb to another Ozawa blackmail.

By that time, Mt. Usu had erupted and for the first time there was not a single casualty, primarily because of Mr. Obuchi's ``super-vision''. The economy had begun recovering and showing results by way of increased consumption. It was clear that a different Obuchi was incharge of a Japan different from the one handed to him 20 months back.

He was a large part of that difference. No longer the ``cold pizza'' as he was called, Mr. Obuchi showed intense dedication and resolve, marked by a telling weakness of being unable to convincingly project his thoughts and achievements. He was, as the Chinese like to say, ``deeds, not words''.

Over a period of time, this, compared to his predecessors, ``Mr. non-charisma'' got the trust of the people. So much so, that he was poised to be properly elected as Prime Minister in his own right, after the upcoming Group of Eight nations (G-8) in Okinawa in July which was to be his piece de resistance on the international stage.

Mr. Obuchi's personal ``connect'' as they say was his forte and compensated for his ignorance about international matters or a failure to articulate policy. He was the first top Japanese politician unashamed to come out of a movie with tears in his eyes. These qualities endeared him to the public to the extent that they shaped the unusual speed and uncharacteristic panache with which the LDP had to move in the next few days to avoid the wrath of a public getting accustomed to decisiveness.

Striving to record these achievements had taken a heavy toll on the self-effacing, cinema-loving man who 36 years ago was vigorous enough to campaign on a bicycle for a lower house seat.

Within 12 hours of his meeting Mr. Ozawa, the Prime Minister was moved to hospital, in a private vehicle, which is an altogether different story. That journey recorded the political demise of Mr. Obuchi.

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