Vananchal State: who will benefit most?

By K. Balchand

PATNA, APRIL 2. The two Houses of the State legislature are likely to discuss the Bihar Reorganisation Bill, 2000, seeking to carve out the new Vananchal State, on April 13, but the question is ``who will benefit most?''

This is relevant at the political and the general levels. There is little doubt that the sudden move for the creation of the new State, comprising 18 districts of south Bihar, is the fallout of the intense political conflict in the post-election scenario.

The bid of the BJP-led coalition at the Centre to pull out the rug from under the feet of the RJD supremo, Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, by raising the issue of creating the Vananchal State lost its punch with the latter eating his words and supporting the cause. That secured him the Congress(I) support to the Rabri Devi Government and saved the Congress(I) from splitting.

While the move failed to split the Congress(I) and save the Nitish Kumar Government, the BJP-led coalition found that it could no longer drag its feet on the issue. That too after it had garnered the support of the JMM on the promise of creating the Vananchal State at the earliest.

The President, Mr. K. R. Narayanan, has called for the opinion of the two Houses of the State Legislature by May 12, but the Rabri Devi Government proposes to convene a brief session for three days on April 13 itself to discuss the issue as promised by Mr. Laloo Yadav. It is different matter that the opinion of the State Legislature would have no bearing on the Central Government while it takes the decision to bifurcate the State.

Unlike in 1998 when the State Legislature had expressed itself against the division this time round it might be a smooth affair with almost all the major parties, save the CPI(M), favouring the move.

But that triggers a new political game. On the face of it, it might appear that the ruling RJD is the real loser having to go back on its stand and unable to prevent the bifurcation. Actually, the three main proponents of the idea the BJP, the Congress(I) and the JMM - may well end up as losers and the RJD the real political gainer.

The RJD stands to gain insofar as that the strength of the BJP- led combine would decrease further in the Bihar Assembly and leave its constituents a tattered lot.

The day the new Vananchal State comes into being, the strength of the Assembly would come down by 81 to 243 and with that the RJD with 114 members would just be short of just eight members for a simple majority. The RJD at present enjoys the support of the Congress(I), the CPI(M) and the BSP and 10 Independents, besides the MCC, which it would lose once the new State comes into existence.

The strength of the Congress(I) would stand divided and with that its importance in both the States.

The picture for the BJP is not rosy either. In the parent Bihar, it would be reduced to a shadow of itself and an equal partner of the Samata party, even though power might still elude it in South Bihar. It has just about 32 MLAs and even with the support of its allies falls short of the magic number without the help of the JMM.

The JMM's problem would be that it would have to contend with the ground realities on which it had fought against the BJP. If the BJP wants the top job in Vananchal for itself, it remains to be seen how it intends to appease the JMM whose support it might seek. The objective of creating the new State to pass power on to the tribals would be achieved in the travesty with the bigger parties serving their selfish ends.

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