Back to square one

Just two months after Northern Ireland's Protestants and Catholics sat together for the first time in a Government, it has been placed under suspension. THOMAS ABRAHAM traces the events.

JUST TWO months ago, with much fanfare Northern Ireland's protestants and catholics sat together for the first time in a power-sharing Government. That Government was intended to mark the end of a bitter period in Irish history and to open the way to a new Northern Ireland in which the protestant majority and the catholic minority would live together in equality and dignity. But so deep-rooted are the suspicions and animosities that have fuelled this decades-long conflict, that the Government has already ground to a halt and been placed under suspension by the British Government.

The cause for this latest crisis is not new - it has plagued the peace process from the time it began more than five years ago. The central issue which has troubled the protestant parties in Northern Ireland has been whether the Irish Republican Army will end its armed struggle to reunify Northern Ireland and Ireland and lay down its weapons. The main protestant party, the Ulster Unionists, only agreed after a protracted internal debate last year to sit in a government with Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing, if the IRA took the first steps towards decommissioning its weapons by February. This has not happened and so the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr. David Trimble, was preparing to resign and take his party out of Government.

Sinn Fein has pointed out that the peace agreement only specifies a deadline of March 22 for weapons to be handed over and has said that there was no need for the Ulster Unionists to set an arbitrary deadline of February 1. Legally, Sinn Fein and the IRA are right: there is no requirement to decommission before March. But the spirit of the peace agreement would appear to require the IRA to make at least a token gesture towards disarmament and calm fears among protestants who are sceptical about its intentions.

Part of the problem over arms decommissioning flows from the ambiguity of the Northern Ireland peace agreement. Neither the IRA nor any of the other paramilitary organisations were signatories to the agreement, nor where they directly involved in the negotiations. The IRA and similar groups were represented by political parties close to them. It was these parties which signed the agreement and pledged to use whatever influence they had on the armed groups to disarm. There is thus no legal obligation on the IRA or any of the other armed groups to lay down their weapons. The IRA for its part has never explicitly stated that it was going to lay down arms. But through its actions, it has indicated that it supports the peace agreement. It has maintained a ceasefire for five years, and recently it sent two senior figures to liaise with a body that is to decide the timetable and modality for disarmament. But these gestures alone have not been enough to calm the suspicions of the Unionists, who have insisted on a verifiable start to disarmament.

The two Sinn Fein leaders, Mr. Gerry Adams and Mr. Martin McGuinness, both former IRA commanders and influential members of the republican movement, have been instrumental in persuading the IRA to put aside its armed struggle, and use democratic methods instead to achieve its political aim of reunifying Ireland. The IRA has backed this line, but there are undoubtedly elements within the movement who are unhappy at surrendering their weapons. Hence the reluctance to start disarmament. Many in the IRA argue that they have effectively laid down their weapons by maintaining a ceasefire and do not see the need for any further action immediately. The IRA, and the republican movement in general, would argue that they want to see how the peace agreement is implemented before taking any precipitate steps towards disarmament. For Northern Ireland's catholics, the most important parts of the agreement are the provisions guaranteeing them equality with the protestant majority. The IRA and Sinn Fein appear to feel that it is important to ensure that a more equal society is created before giving up their weapons. A deeper, though unstated, reason for the IRA's reluctance to hand over its weapons is that once it disarms it no longer has a reason for existence. An armed organisation cannot exist without weapons. Once the IRA disarms, it will in effect have to disband and end its 80-year-long existence. This is a difficult step for any organisation to take.

The impasse over weapons handover is a reflection of the suspicions that persist in Northern Ireland despite the peace agreement. The Ulster Unionists and other protestants are convinced that the IRA will never give up its weapons, while the IRA and Sinn Fein see the insistence on disarmament as an excuse by the protestants not to share power with them.

It is not clear what strategy the British and the Irish Governments intend to adopt to get over this impasse. The suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly suits the Ulster Unionists but has caused dismay in Sinn Fein, who argue rightly that they have scrupulously followed their obligations under the peace agreement and see no reason for the suspension. Sinn Fein has argued that this suspension will make it more difficult than ever to get the IRA to lay down arms. ``In my view the whole issue of arms can be satisfactorily resolved and I am committed to resolving it. But proving that politics does not work is not the way to persuade armed groups,'' Mr. Adams wrote recently. The general consensus appears to be that the IRA must in some way be persuaded at least to agree on a timetable for disarmament before any further progress is made. But whether this is possible, and if so how it is to be achieved, no one seems to know.

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